2020年2月13日晚间,阿里巴巴集团公布截至2019年12月31日的季度业绩。财报显示第三财季营收1614亿元,同比增长38%,市场预期1592.09亿元,去年同期为1172.78亿元;第三财季归属于股东的净利润为523.09亿元,市场预期为303.35亿元,去年同期为330.52亿元。
其中,来自菜鸟物流服务的营收为人民币75.18亿元(约合10.80亿美元),同比增长67%。来自本地消费者服务的营收为人民币75.84亿元(约合10.89亿美元),同比增长47%。
来自云计算业务的营收为人民币107.21亿元(约合15.40亿美元),同比增长62%。来自数字传媒和娱乐的营收为人民币73.96亿元(约合10.62亿美元),同比增长14%。来自创新战略和其他营收为人民币18.64亿元(约合2.68亿美元),同比增长40%。
此外,2019年12月,阿里的中国零售市场移动月活跃用户达8.24亿,较2019年9月净增长3,900万。截至2019年12月31日止12个月,中国零售市场年度活跃消费者达7.11亿,较截至2019年9月30日止12个月的6.93亿增长1,800万。其中超过60%的新增年度活跃消费者来自欠发达地区。
阿里巴巴CEO张勇在集团财报会议中预测,新冠疫情或将给阿里3月当季营收增长带来负面影响。消息流出导致阿里巴巴股价迅速下跌,盘前跌2.9%,报217.88美元。
疫情——福祸双依
张勇曾在分析师电话会上指出,让包括阿里巴巴在内的所有中国企业都意想不到的是,在2020年的开端会被新型冠状病毒这个“黑天鹅事件”突然袭击。
目前新型冠状病毒疫情的延续,正在给中国经济乃至世界经济带来着巨大变动,也无法规避地对阿里巴巴各项业务的发展产生着影响。
很多投资者都不由地担忧起阿里2020财年第四季度(即日历年2020第一季度)的业绩。事实上,阿里也透露了,疫情对其供应链、物流都产生了巨大影响。特别是菜鸟业务,虽然财务上基数小不会很明显,但因为工作人员还未复工, 物流运力只有十分之一,极大制约着物流效率。
此外,阿里2020财年第四季度的中国零售商业板块也将受到较大冲击。对此,阿里出台了一系列抗疫扶助计划以帮助平台商户,包括:减免平台商家经营费用,对所有天猫商家,免去2020上半年的平台服务年费; 提供资金支持,为商家提供低息免息贷款;联合菜鸟设立10亿元专项基金,用于补贴供应链和物流等。
这一系列举措是什么概念呢?以免除天猫商户平台服务费为例,根据华兴资本测算,天猫商家每年的服务费约在3-6万元之间(基于GMV级别,商家可以获得一些折扣),假设每位商户每年服务费约35000元,以天猫现有25万家商户计算,在2020年上半年阿里将损失44亿元的收入。
而针对淘宝方面,阿里计划免除旺铺(店面软件)智能版的月订阅费,即每户商家每月99元人民币,大约有四分之一的淘宝商户在使用这个版本,预估这一举措将使阿里在2020年上半年损失大约15亿元人民币。若疫情期经营环境不好,商户减少广告预算,淘宝将受到更大影响。
在阿里的电话会议中曾明确指出,疫情对财务有着直接影响,收入增长势必放缓,淘宝、天猫和本地审核服务也将出现负增长。
但事物都有着两面性,“黑天鹅”的降临给阿里巴巴带来的除了挑战,同时也有新的机遇。
目前,阿里也在密切关注着疫情给其各项业务带来的新机会。“就像十七年前所经历的,SARS以后,电子商务获得巨大发展。每次重大灾难发生的同时,总孕育着新的历史机会。这次我们也看到,在疫情面前,越来越多的消费者选择并习惯了数字化的生活方式和工作方式。”张勇说。
这次疫情虽然对阿里的部分业务造成了短期负面影响,但同时也加速了阿里旗下盒马、钉钉等生鲜电商和远程办公业务的发展;并且有助于促进电商接触原本未服务的非网购用户。更长远地看,这一机遇或有望加速阿里付费和产业互联网业务的渗透扩张。
淘宝——当家花旦
淘宝作为阿里巴巴的当家花旦,在疫情之中能否帮助阿里降低损失?
据了解,淘宝在一二线城市和下沉市场都保持了强劲的增长。财报数据显示,在Q3季度中,淘宝新增年度活跃消费者中超过60%来自下沉市场。聚划算百亿补贴在Q3季度上线,对品牌正品的官方补贴,进一步拉动了高性价比人群在淘宝平台的消费。
值得注意的是,阿里Q3财报首次公布了淘宝直播业务数据。2019年12月,观看淘宝直播的月活跃用户和淘宝直播带动的GMV,都同比增长超过一倍。财报表示,淘宝直播助力商家及网络红人通过直播方式与粉丝及消费者进行营销互动,已经成为淘宝天猫商家最为快速及有效的销售模式之一。
根据阿里此前披露的数据显示,2019年淘宝直播带动的就业接近400万,2019年天猫双11,淘宝直播单日带动成交接近200亿。面对新冠肺炎疫情的冲击,淘宝第一时间宣布线下商家零门槛开通淘宝直播,帮助实体企业实现数字化运营。
同时,淘宝天猫用户规模再创新高。淘宝通过优化内容创新和个性化推荐,来服务现有消费者及吸引新用户。而淘宝天猫多元化的供给策略,覆盖了品牌正品,淘宝长尾市场,性价比市场等不同类型货品。财报显示,消费者分层运营广受用户欢迎,并持续带来订单量增长及更高的复购频次。
阿里巴巴介绍,一些无法在线下进行的品牌新品发布会,可以通过淘宝直播进行。2月12日,淘宝直播宣布将推出“云发布会”,联动短视频、淘宝头条等淘宝内容生态以及天猫新品首发阵地,让品牌在疫情下也能照常进行新品发布。粉丝可以在品牌直播间进行实时互动,边看边加购。商家还可使用5G直播信号、与主播进行连麦、VR体验新机等新技术,使发布会更具现场感。
据淘宝2月14日提供的数据:2月以来,每天新增的淘宝店数量达到3万多家。在淘宝的一键开店创业平台“淘小铺”,2月3日以来新增开店人数增长超过300%。“淘小铺”客户可通过分享、参与评论或“买家秀”推广商品获得收入。
而各行业上线“云复工”,据报道,目前至少有30余家知名餐饮企业已经或正在把后厨改成直播间,其中包括汉堡王、哈根达斯、真功夫、吉野家、呷哺呷哺、宏状元。
就像张勇说得“像十七年前所经历的,SARS以后,电子商务获得巨大发展。每次重大灾难发生的同时,总孕育着新的历史机会”。疫情对与淘宝来说是挑战亦是机会,一二线城市以及下沉市场将是最强的后盾。
财报中的数据正是最好的印证-阿里巴巴集团云计算业务单季收入首次超过人民币100亿元。
云计算——阿里的另一大支撑
2020年2月11日,IDC发布《中国公有云服务市场(2019Q3)跟踪》报告。报告显示2019年Q3中国公有云IaaS市场规模达144.6亿人民币,同比增长62.2%。阿里云、腾讯云、金山云作为互联网云服务商前三企业,与中国电信、华为云、AWS共同领跑中国云计算市场快速发展。据IDC上次发布半年报预测显示, 2019-2023中国公有云IaaS年均复合增长率将达46%,预计到2023年中国IaaS市场规模将达到2087亿元人民币。
财报同期,亚马逊云计算季度营收增长34%,从10亿级到100亿级花了6年时间,而阿里云仅在4年内就实现单季度营收从10亿级别到100亿的跃升。而受益于疫情防控期间日益增长的远程办公需求,阿里云的增长还在持续。
据亚马逊AWS首席执行官Andy Jassy在接受日经新闻采访时曾表示,阿里云正在迎头赶上亚马逊,但市场足够广阔,云计算仍有巨大增长潜力。据Gartner数据,阿里云在亚太市场排名第一,市场份额是亚马逊和微软的总和。
根据公开信息显示,该季度内,阿里云服务的大型企业扩展至中国一汽、申通、保利、东方航空、吉利、光明乳业、贝因美、空中客车等不同行业和领域。阿里在财报中表示,阿里云达到了一个重要里程碑:在“双11”前,阿里巴巴核心系统100%迁移到阿里云公共云上,中国唯一自研飞天云操作系统扛住“双11”流量洪峰,当日订单创建峰值达54.4万笔/秒,再创历史纪录。
由于疫情防控期间远程办公需求剧增,阿里云在本季度可能会保持较高的增速。阿里巴巴董事会主席兼CEO张勇表示,远成办公在疫情爆发期间出现了爆发性的增长。
2020年2月5日,阿里旗下移动办公应用“钉钉”首次超过微信,跃居苹果AppStore排行榜第一,这也是苹果应用商店里,办公类应用产品历史上首次跃居第一,国内ToB端市场潜力无限。5日凌晨,在苹果手机端应用商店和MAC电脑端应用商店,钉钉下载量均跃居免费排行榜总榜第一名。
数据显示,阿里旗下的远程通勤平台钉钉已成为最受欢迎的平台之一,有超过1000万家公司使用钉钉远程办公,且20个省的2万所学校和1200万名学生采用了钉钉远程上课和辅导。
在公共卫生事件期间,作为PaaS和SaaS平台的钉钉不仅获得了更多的新增用户,也拓展了包括在线教育和远程办公等新的应用场景。长期来看,这些业务有望成为阿里巴巴新的估值增长引擎。
从返回港股以后资金对阿里的偏爱就可以看出,市场普遍对阿里未来业绩抱有较大的期待。在正常情况下,阿里的业绩稳步提升趋势还是较为明朗,虽然短期之内,其核心商业业务依然被笼罩在公共卫生事件的阴云之下,但整体来看,阿里云凭借在新零售、云视频、云游戏等领域的收入优势继续保持行业龙头老大的市场地位,但进一步扩大以政务、金融和制造行业为主的企业级市场正在为其提供新的增长动力,而在混合云、人工智能、物联网领域持续布局发展,有望成为阿里集团长期价值的重要支撑。
新零售——一“马”当“鲜”
疫情下不仅催生了远程办公,更催生了新零售,数据显示,整个新零售业务方面,第三财季的收入为258亿元,同比增长128%,持续加速增长。
根据QuestMobile数据显示,盒马生鲜的app在春节期间日均DAU同比增长127.5%,在众多生鲜电商APP中排名第一。
在当前多个小区封闭的情况下,以盒马为代表的生鲜企业受到了大量的追捧,更是出现了凌晨抢配送员的情况。
据公司情报专家《财经涂鸦》消息,新冠病毒疫情期间,盒马鲜生的网上订单数量相较去年同期激增220%,但平均客单价却从去年的80-90元下降至40元左右。
相关人士透露,由于疫情期间民生单品需求暴增,网上订单主要集中在蔬菜、柴米油盐、方便面、冷冻食品等,同时随着客户购买频次的增加,亦摊薄了客单价。
同样带来的问题是人员紧缺。在货源方面很多产品无法在外地很快运到上海,也造成了一部分商品短缺。但该人士表示,盒马比其他互联网生鲜平台的货源更充足。
就人员紧缺问题,盒马在春节期间连续推出政策,吸收云海肴等多家餐饮连锁企业的员工临时在盒马就业,并将在今年持续扩张招聘30000名新员工。
并且有数家企业与盒马达成“共享员工”合作,据盒马方面称,酒店、影院、百货、商场乃至出租、汽车租赁等服务行业也陆续参与了这种新型企业互助。
为保障民生的需求,盒马鲜生菜品的价格也受到监管部门的管控,几乎是以进价差不多的价格销售给顾客。算上运输期间的蔬菜损耗,利润非常低。这将是拉低客单价的原因之一,作为第一季度的财报会带来一些影响。
对疫情过后线上生鲜客单价的判断,盒马内部工作人员认为将回到常态,线下时间充裕的用户仍会回流线下购物,当前各平台的客单价提升或下降都只是暂时的。
长期来看,对比其他竞争对手,相较传统商超盒马具有品类优势及阿里的数据支持和更高效率的运作模式;对比其他线上生鲜,盒马有线下体验店,所以其新零售竞争优势明显,疫情过后客单价能很快恢复至正常水平。
总结
毫无疑问,疫情会对第四财季的财务数据造成影响,但疫情肯定会过去,对阿里的负面影响也更多是短暂的一次性的,只要整体业务仍在健康的战略线上发展,阿里就会很快弥补疫情中的损失。
另外,疫情之下,很多消费者也改变了日常生活工作方式,比如在线办公、线上买菜等。祸福相依,疫情之下,阿里或许会迎来全新的发展机遇。
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上一篇Lots of people surprise whether it be truly practical to learn the Nintendo RANGE OF MOTION game titles because of their Nintendo DS or perhaps Wii. Most of the time, those individuals who want to perform the Manufacturers DS or perhaps Nintendo Wii video games free of charge will end up disappointed using their makes an attempt because they acquire incredibly lower-quality editions belonging to the games. At times, they even face various other more severe issues including glitches or other more specialized complications. It has to be taken into account that playing Nintendo DS or Nintendo wii console online games free of charge may be achieved by installing and setting up the Enjoy Roms Web browser program on your computer system. The Enjoy Roms Web browser is a type of application which allows users to look for and mount the most up-to-date Play ROMs at no cost and next enjoy all of them through their particular existing gaming units. They could enjoy Roms free of charge provided that they have a connection to the internet, consequently sometimes they will not have to keep all their homes to experiment with their exclusive online games. The Perform Roms Internet browser software likewise enables avid gamers to download cost-free downloads available to save them on the personal computers as well. They are in a position to conserve the game on the computer systems to load whenever they like. When downloaded, it is possible to try out the game right away as long as you have a web interconnection obtainable. For anyone who is getting the online games via an additional resource, you might be unable to download these people up. When the application is installed on your personal computer, you need to visit the site that gives the Perform Roms Internet browser. You might be supplied with an application which you are going to your website name of this web page that you want to experiment with the video games from. The internet browser can search the home page's databases with respect to online games to download for you personally and next inform you if there are any kind of fresh game titles at no cost or any time you will discover virtually any editions for the games that you can download and play. That way, it is possible to determine regardless of whether you would like to make an effort playing the cost-free games just before spent any cash. The solution performs https://custom-roms.com/roms/mame/qix-usa the same as the free of charge downloads available provided by most sites. Once you your domain within the internet site, you'll be given the choice to down load the sport or perhaps variety you are looking for. Once you have paid out a few money and the video games will be ready to be downloaded, you'll certainly be caused to pick which in turn video games you would like to enjoy. It is crucial to make note of that your computer software will simply enable you to choose a single game to experiment with each time, hence make sure you be aware of whatever you choose. As long as you can hook up to the world wide web and get a web interconnection readily available, it's simple to start out playing the rom video games you have downloaded. They are simply sorted so that you could perform all of them right from your personal computer making use of the Enjoy Roms Internet browser program. Consequently you can't have to have a wireless connection or perform through one more machine in order to enjoy the games. It is possible in order to save considerable time simply by getting Play ROMs on the internet instead of in the website where you choose the video games. Additionally , the Enjoy Roms Internet browser can save you time and effort because it has become designed so you can download the rom game titles before long. Naturally , you simply must select which in turn video games you would like to play before starting, but this will vastly reduce the overall period it will take to launch up the range of motion game titles you could have downloaded. The internet browser works together with the majority of video games which have been downloadable throughout the Internet. Of course , if you find a new video game that you'll be considering, you can always search for the sport and download this instantly. All of the best online games are available for get the Enjoy Roms Internet browser application. You are able to download 1000s of game titles from your pc and stay willing to enjoy them immediately!